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What-ifs are the order of the day in broadcast television since the news broke that NBC is having internal discussions about cutting nightly prime-time from three hours to two (four hours to three on Sundays) possibly as soon as fall 2023.
What-if No. 1: If NBC goes ahead with its prime-time paring plan, what will affiliates do with the hour that precedes their late newscasts?
What-if No. 2: If a gradual chipping away at prime time eventually goes beyond that nightly one hour, what will affiliates have left to tie them to their networks?
One answer to the second one: As the “Fiddler On The Roof” song goes, “A little bit of this, a little bit of that” (“Anatevka”).
There will still be sports such as NFL football (with the Super Bowl every four years) and Olympics; plus, NBC News -- most notably “Today” (pictured above) and “Nightly News.” And, as an added bonus, “Days Of Our Lives.”
A caveat before continuing: The wholesale elimination of NBC prime time seems unlikely, at least for the time being (which could constitute years).
Having said that, the evolution of television has been fast-moving for the last decade or more, so who knows?
Mitigating against such a wholesale jettisoning of prime time: Networks and affiliates are intertwined. Unraveling the tangle of their relationships might prove counter-productive to both.
“So infatuated with streaming are the traditional networks that they seem to have forgotten what their affiliate partners bring to the table: A massive distribution system, powerful brand value and reportedly $2 billion per year to each network in the form of program payments,” wrote media consultant and local TV veteran Hank Price for TVNewsCheck last May.
“Though it seems to have slipped their minds, the networks also know their success is directly tied to the brand strength of their affiliate bodies.”
As for what the affiliates might do with the third hour of prime time if and when NBC exits, expanding their late news into the time period seems to be leading the list of guesses on this subject.
To cite Hank Price again, he suggests in a TVNewsCheck column this week that some network affiliates might welcome NBC relinquishing the hour, mainly because Fox affiliates in many markets have run 10 p.m. newscasts completely unopposed in the time period, and have profited handsomely in the process.
“Going to head-to-head [with Fox] in the time period would level the playing field,” Price wrote this week. "Most importantly, a one-hour newscast would double late news inventory, nothing to sneeze at.”
A possible pitfall, however: Local stations have been adding news hours like crazy over the last few years. Local markets are saturated with TV news. Can they profit from more of it?
Adam, I think that we shouldconsider this in the light of possible long term thinking on the part of the networks. First, they are not dreaming about abandoning their affiliates as they offer early AM, daytime, news, late night and live sports fare as well as specials, in addition to prime time entertainment programs. But the latter are increasingly expensive--even with the increased use of cheaper formats such as reality shows. You can only schedule so many of these without driving away the rest of your younger/middle aged viewers. An obvious plan that's in the minds of network execs is to develop expensive new drama and sitcom series with original showings first on their streaming venues--in order to hook new subs and retain existing ones. These would emulate the typical streaming practice and involve only a dozen or so episodes per "season". Then, once these "originals" have played out on their streaming platforms---or even sooner than that---the same shows would appear on their liner TV prime time schedules where they would be "originals" in the sense that many of the networks' older viewers haven't seen them before. Here, they would earn ad dollars and thus be profitble ventures as a major part of their costs were, in effect, charged to the streaming services. In short, the networks' linear TV prime time would continue from 8-10PM, but include limited episode "seasons" of made-for-streaming dramas and sitcoms---plus realiity shows, news magazines and, probably varieties and game shows---all catering to an audience with an average age of 60-65 years. Meanwhile the affiliates would clean up---ad sales -wise---with syndicated Prime Time Access fare or newscasts. It's a fairly sensible plan.
If cutting the cable has become the modern equivalent of ditching the landline phone, then broadcast TV has become the new "first chance" window for next-day streaming of episodic TV content. I think it's pretty much over. Affiliates can sell data distribution and rule the airwaves with local news, but never again be the nexus for primetime. Sports content is slipping away quickly, too. As I explain to my college students, broadcast TV stations arrived in the 1940s because they were the ONLY way to deliver network TV to an anonymous audience. Not the best way, but the only way. Not so today. Since the slow march of cable-satellite-telco-internet-streaming technology and widespread adoption, over-the-air affiliates have watched the bathtub water circle the drain. It's just a matter of time.
Apologies if I missed something, but isn't Days of Our Lives going to be on Peacock exclusively, starting September 12th?
Don't count all of your chickenns before they hatch, Douglas. Why are so many people switching to over-the-air TV reception---about 15% of thek, currently?
Wow, two glaring typos in one small post. Tiime for a new set of glasses. Sorry folks.
ADAM BUCKMAN, TV columnist, MediaPost